Justin Turner has long been one of Major League Baseball’s most reliable and productive hitters. Since his breakout with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Turner has consistently ranked among the league’s top offensive players. However, for the true baseball connoisseur, understanding Justin Turner’s value goes beyond traditional statistics like batting average, home runs, and RBIs. To fully appreciate his contributions, we need to dive into advanced analytics available on FanGraphs, one of the premier platforms for in-depth baseball analysis.
Justin Turner’s Evolution as a Player
Turner’s journey from a utility player with the New York Mets to a core component of the Dodgers’ offense is nothing short of remarkable. While his early career statistics might not suggest a future star, his transformation upon joining the Dodgers in 2014 is a testament to his hard work and refined hitting approach.
One of the most significant shifts in Turner’s profile is his plate discipline. Turner evolved from a free-swinging hitter into one of the most patient and selective batters in the league. This change has been instrumental in his prolonged success, particularly as he ages. His BB% (walk percentage) consistently ranks above the league average, while his K% (strikeout percentage) remains impressively low for a power hitter.
Analyzing Justin Turner FanGraphs Metrics
To understand Justin Turner’s full impact on the field, it’s important to explore advanced metrics available on FanGraphs:
wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus)
One of the most telling statistics when evaluating Turner’s offensive performance is wRC+. This metric adjusts for ballpark factors and compares a player’s total run creation to league averages. A score of 100 is league average, and Turner regularly posts scores well above this mark. For example, during his peak years with the Dodgers, Turner’s wRC+ hovered around 140, meaning he was 40% more productive at creating runs than the average player.
The beauty of wRC+ is that it provides a complete picture of a player’s offensive contributions, accounting for both power and on-base skills. For Turner, whose OBP (on-base percentage) often exceeds .370, this statistic showcases just how valuable he is to his team’s offense.
BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play)
Turner’s BABIP over the years has also been a key factor in understanding his success. A high BABIP can indicate good luck, while a low BABIP may suggest poor fortune. However, Turner’s consistent BABIP rates indicate that he regularly makes quality contact with the ball, often driving it to different parts of the field. His ability to hit to all fields makes it difficult for defenses to shift against him effectively.
ISO (Isolated Power)
Isolated Power measures a player’s raw power by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage. Justin Turner’s ISO has steadily improved throughout his career, with his power surge in the mid-2010s marking his transformation into a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat. His ISO often ranks among the top third basemen in the league, proving that Turner is not just a contact hitter, but also someone capable of driving the ball for extra-base hits and home runs.
O-Swing% (Outside Swing Percentage) and Z-Swing% (Zone Swing Percentage)
One of the most fascinating aspects of Turner’s game is his discipline when it comes to swinging at pitches outside the strike zone (O-Swing%). Turner’s ability to lay off bad pitches has resulted in fewer strikeouts and more walks, which increases his OBP. His Z-Swing% (the percentage of swings at pitches inside the strike zone) is also telling, as it shows how effectively Turner capitalizes on hittable pitches.
Defensive Metrics: UZR and DRS
While Turner is primarily known for his bat, his defensive contributions shouldn’t be overlooked. Using advanced defensive metrics like Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), we can see that Turner has been an above-average defender at third base for much of his career. His UZR/150, which adjusts for innings played, often places him in the upper echelon of third basemen.
Turner’s defense, combined with his elite offensive output, makes him a valuable asset in any lineup. While he may not have the same range as some of the younger players at his position, his positioning and instincts have helped him remain a solid contributor on the field.
Comparing Justin Turner to His Peers
When compared to other third basemen across MLB, Turner consistently ranks near the top in several advanced metrics. His WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is one of the best ways to quantify his overall value. FanGraphs’ version of WAR, known as fWAR, considers both offensive and defensive contributions, and Turner regularly finishes among the leaders in this category for his position.
In addition to his stellar wRC+, Turner’s fWAR from 2014 to 2020 placed him in the company of elite third basemen like Nolan Arenado and Anthony Rendon. Although Arenado is widely regarded for his power and defense, Turner’s well-rounded game – particularly his ability to get on base and provide consistent offense – makes him a vital component for any team.
Clutch Factor and Playoff Performance
Another area where Justin Turner shines is his ability to perform in high-leverage situations. Over the years, Turner has developed a reputation as a clutch hitter, particularly in the postseason. His Clutch score, which measures how well a player performs in high-pressure situations, is consistently positive. In October, when the stakes are highest, Turner often delivers, as evidenced by his numerous big hits for the Dodgers during their playoff runs. His postseason wRC+ is one of the best among active players, making him one of the most dangerous hitters in critical moments.
The Future of Justin Turner
As Turner moves into the latter stages of his career, there are questions about how his game will age. However, his skillset – built around plate discipline, contact, and power – suggests that he could continue to be a productive hitter for several more years. Players with Turner’s approach tend to age better than those reliant solely on athleticism or speed. Additionally, his ability to play both first and third base adds flexibility to his profile, making him valuable even if his defense declines.
Conclusion: Justin Turner’s Lasting Impact
Justin Turner is more than just a stat line; he is a player who epitomizes consistency, discipline, and clutch performance. His advanced metrics on FanGraphs highlight just how impactful he has been throughout his career, and his ability to adapt and refine his game has made him one of baseball’s premier third basemen. Whether it’s his high wRC+, impressive ISO, or solid defensive metrics, Turner’s value on the field is undeniable. As he continues to evolve, Turner’s legacy as one of the game’s most reliable hitters is cemented.